Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- Yegor SharangovichAssists1
- Yegor SharangovichPoints2
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Alex GoligoskiAssists1
- Matt BoldyPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Matt Boldy Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Yegor Sharangovich Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Mats Zuccarello Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P34:58Marco Rossi Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Goligoski (3), Marcus Johansson (11)2–2
- P34:13Blake Coleman Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (8), MacKenzie Weegar (11)2–1
- P213:18Yegor Sharangovich Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Elias Lindholm (12), Connor Zary (9)1–1
- P14:42Matt Boldy Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:42Matt Boldy Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 56% → 70% +14MIN 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P213:18Yegor Sharangovich Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Elias Lindholm (12), Connor Zary (9)CGY 1 – 1 MIN · CGY 26% → 46% +20CGY 26% → 46%+20 pts
- P34:13Blake Coleman Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (8), MacKenzie Weegar (11)CGY 2 – 1 MIN · CGY 47% → 74% +27CGY 47% → 74%+27 pts
- P34:58Marco Rossi Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Goligoski (3), Marcus Johansson (11)CGY 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 26% → 53% +27MIN 26% → 53%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 61%
- Fair odds
- MIN -129
- CGY +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +18 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.44 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +79 Elo | MIN 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.6% | Shot share | 50.4%15th of 31 |
| 30th of 3188.8% | Save percentage | 89.4%24th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 25th of 315–10 | Road vs home | 5–516th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.