Calgary Flames at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals2
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals2
- Drew DoughtyAssists2
- Quinton ByfieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:00Quinton Byfield Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (19), Anze Kopitar (18)3–5
- P37:18Blake Coleman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Ruzicka (6), MacKenzie Weegar (12)3–4
- P29:57Trevor Moore Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (8)2–4
- P26:28Alex Laferriere Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (10), Mikey Anderson (9)2–3
- P24:01Blake Coleman Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (10)2–2
- P115:20Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (11), Phillip Danault (13)1–2
- P12:47Rasmus Andersson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (10), Andrew Mangiapane (11)1–1
- P11:01Quinton Byfield Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (9), Anze Kopitar (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:47Rasmus Andersson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (10), Andrew Mangiapane (11)CGY 1 – 1 LA · CGY 30% → 44% +14CGY 30% → 44%+14 pts
- P115:20Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (11), Phillip Danault (13)CGY 1 – 2 LA · LA 55% → 71% +16LA 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P24:01Blake Coleman Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (10)CGY 2 – 2 LA · CGY 28% → 45% +18CGY 28% → 45%+18 pts
- P26:28Alex Laferriere Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (10), Mikey Anderson (9)CGY 2 – 3 LA · LA 55% → 73% +18LA 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P37:18Blake Coleman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Ruzicka (6), MacKenzie Weegar (12)CGY 3 – 4 LA · CGY 5% → 19% +15CGY 5% → 19%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 60%
- Fair odds
- LA -128
- CGY +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +14 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +73 Elo | LA 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +1.02nd of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.6% | Shot share | 56.5%2nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 91.5%5th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 26th of 316–11 | Road vs home | 4–930th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.