Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Damon SeversonGoals1
- Jake ChristiansenAssists1
- Damon SeversonPoints1
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals2
- Sean CouturierAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Johnny Gaudreau Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P310:20Jake Bean Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jack Roslovic (7), Erik Gudbranson (10)2–2
- P35:24Damon Severson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (13), Jake Christiansen (1)1–2
- P34:29Travis Konecny Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Joel Farabee (17), Sean Couturier (17)0–2
- P117:12Travis Konecny Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Joel Farabee (16), Sean Couturier (16)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:12Travis Konecny Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Joel Farabee (16), Sean Couturier (16)CBJ 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 56% → 72% +16PHI 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P34:29Travis Konecny Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Joel Farabee (17), Sean Couturier (17)CBJ 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 79% → 94% +15PHI 79% → 94%+15 pts
- P35:24Damon Severson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (13), Jake Christiansen (1)CBJ 1 – 2 PHI · CBJ 6% → 21% +15CBJ 6% → 21%+15 pts
- P310:20Jake Bean Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jack Roslovic (7), Erik Gudbranson (10)CBJ 2 – 2 PHI · CBJ 16% → 47% +31CBJ 16% → 47%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- CBJ +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +5 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +91 Elo | PHI 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.9% | Shot share | 53.2%5th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 90.6%14th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 29th of 314–13 | Road vs home | 8–818th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.