Columbus Blue Jackets at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Jake BeanGoals1
- Alexandre TexierAssists1
- Jake BeanPoints1
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals1
- Dawson MercerAssists2
- Dawson MercerPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:12Timo Meier Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–4
- P318:35Luke Hughes Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (26), Dawson Mercer (8)3–3
- P317:34Yegor Chinakhov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P315:51Dawson Mercer Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (4)2–2
- P28:28Justin Danforth Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: David Jiricek (8), Adam Fantilli (12)2–1
- P19:55Ondrej Palat Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (8), Dawson Mercer (7)1–1
- P16:39Jake Bean Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gaunce (2), Alexandre Texier (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:28Justin Danforth Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: David Jiricek (8), Adam Fantilli (12)CBJ 2 – 1 NJ · CBJ 45% → 65% +20CBJ 45% → 65%+20 pts
- P315:51Dawson Mercer Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (4)CBJ 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 9% → 52% +43NJ 9% → 52%+43 pts
- P317:34Yegor Chinakhov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 3 – 2 NJ · CBJ 49% → 96% +48CBJ 49% → 96%+48 pts
- P318:35Luke Hughes Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (26), Dawson Mercer (8)CBJ 3 – 3 NJ · NJ <1% → 51% +50NJ <1% → 51%+50 pts
- OT2:12Timo Meier Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 3 – 4 NJ · NJ 51% → 96% +44NJ 51% → 96%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 61%
- Fair odds
- NJ -129
- CBJ +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +11 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +78 Elo | NJ 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −0.222nd of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.4% | Shot share | 52.0%8th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 88.7%27th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 29th of 314–11 | Road vs home | 7–922nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 1–1 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.