Detroit Red Wings at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- Christian FischerAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints1
Devils- Timo MeierGoals2
- Jesper BrattAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:45Tyler Toffoli Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Bratt (25), Jack Hughes (25)2–3
- P32:46Timo Meier Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P210:33Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (13), Christian Fischer (6)2–1
- P111:43Timo Meier Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P14:22Patrick Kane Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (17), Moritz Seider (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:22Patrick Kane Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (17), Moritz Seider (17)DET 1 – 0 NJ · DET 41% → 56% +15DET 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P111:43Timo Meier Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 42% → 58% +16NJ 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P210:33Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (13), Christian Fischer (6)DET 2 – 1 NJ · DET 43% → 64% +20DET 43% → 64%+20 pts
- P32:46Timo Meier Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 29% → 55% +26NJ 29% → 55%+26 pts
- P312:45Tyler Toffoli Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Bratt (25), Jack Hughes (25)DET 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 53% → 87% +34NJ 53% → 87%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 59%
- Fair odds
- NJ -146
- DET +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.4 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +9 | DET: Michael Hutchinson (no track record yet) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +66 Elo | NJ 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.222nd of 31 |
| 21st of 3148.7% | Shot share | 51.7%9th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 88.6%28th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 12th of 317–7 | Road vs home | 6–922nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–1 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.