Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Ryan PoehlingGoals2
- Travis SanheimAssists1
- Ryan PoehlingPoints2
Devils- Michael McLeodGoals1
- Curtis LazarAssists1
- Michael McLeodPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:25Owen Tippett Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P28:19Ryan Poehling Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (10), Travis Sanheim (18)2–2
- P22:44Jesper Bratt Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (8), Jack Hughes (24)1–2
- P21:10Ryan Poehling Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (9)1–1
- P114:16Michael McLeod Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan Bastian (4), Curtis Lazar (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:16Michael McLeod Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan Bastian (4), Curtis Lazar (6)PHI 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 54% → 70% +16NJ 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P21:10Ryan Poehling Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (9)PHI 1 – 1 NJ · PHI 29% → 46% +17PHI 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P22:44Jesper Bratt Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (8), Jack Hughes (24)PHI 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 54% → 71% +17NJ 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P28:19Ryan Poehling Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (10), Travis Sanheim (18)PHI 2 – 2 NJ · PHI 28% → 47% +19PHI 28% → 47%+19 pts
- OT3:25Owen Tippett Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 3 – 2 NJ · PHI 49% → 99% +49PHI 49% → 99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 54%
- Fair odds
- NJ -121
- PHI +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +9 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +26 Elo | NJ 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.9% | Shot share | 52.2%9th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 88.8%28th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 9th of 318–6 | Road vs home | 6–720th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.