Edmonton Oilers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Ryan McLeodGoals2
- Sam GagnerAssists2
- Ryan McLeodPoints2
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals1
- Michael McLeodAssists2
- Dawson MercerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:04Ryan McLeod Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
- P32:49Adam Erne Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Gagner (5)5–3
- P32:22Leon Draisaitl Goal (14) Backhand, assists: none4–3
- P31:40Connor McDavid Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (9), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (23)3–3
- P216:26Timo Meier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (6)2–3
- P21:39Jonas Siegenthaler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (3), Michael McLeod (7)2–2
- P113:14Dawson Mercer Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael McLeod (6)2–1
- P15:24Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (8), Connor McDavid (31)2–0
- P10:24Ryan McLeod Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Gagner (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:39Jonas Siegenthaler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (3), Michael McLeod (7)EDM 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 36% → 54% +18NJ 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P216:26Timo Meier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (6)EDM 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 53% → 75% +21NJ 53% → 75%+21 pts
- P31:40Connor McDavid Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (9), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (23)EDM 3 – 3 NJ · EDM 23% → 47% +24EDM 23% → 47%+24 pts
- P32:22Leon Draisaitl Goal (14) Backhand, assists: noneEDM 4 – 3 NJ · EDM 47% → 73% +25EDM 47% → 73%+25 pts
- P32:49Adam Erne Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Gagner (5)EDM 5 – 3 NJ · EDM 73% → 90% +17EDM 73% → 90%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 56%
- Fair odds
- NJ -123
- EDM +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −9 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NJ: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +40 Elo | NJ 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.9% | Shot share | 52.1%8th of 31 |
| 30th of 3188.4% | Save percentage | 88.8%27th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 28th of 314–9 | Road vs home | 6–822nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–0 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.