Detroit Red Wings at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints2
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists2
- Gabriel VilardiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:12Mark Scheifele Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (7), Nikolaj Ehlers (14)2–5
- P38:41Patrick Kane Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (16), Moritz Seider (14)2–4
- P216:10Gabriel Vilardi Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Cole Perfetti (11), Josh Morrissey (23)1–4
- P210:50Axel Jonsson-Fjallby Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (8)1–3
- P27:41Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (6), Dylan DeMelo (11)1–2
- P21:44Olli Maatta Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (4), Andrew Copp (11)1–1
- P115:38Neal Pionk Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Axel Jonsson-Fjallby (2), David Gustafsson (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:38Neal Pionk Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Axel Jonsson-Fjallby (2), David Gustafsson (2)DET 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 55% → 71% +16WPG 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P21:44Olli Maatta Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (4), Andrew Copp (11)DET 1 – 1 WPG · DET 29% → 46% +17DET 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P27:41Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (6), Dylan DeMelo (11)DET 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 54% → 73% +18WPG 54% → 73%+18 pts
- P210:50Axel Jonsson-Fjallby Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (8)DET 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 73% → 87% +14WPG 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P216:10Gabriel Vilardi Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Cole Perfetti (11), Josh Morrissey (23)DET 1 – 4 WPG · WPG 89% → 97% +7WPG 89% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Fair odds
- WPG -125
- DET +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −3 | DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +50 Elo | WPG 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.57th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.1% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 91.6%5th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 11th of 317–6 | Road vs home | 8–715th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 WPG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.