Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Josh AndersonAssists1
- Josh AndersonPoints2
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals1
- Brenden DillonAssists1
- Gabriel VilardiPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:09Justin Barron Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (14), Nick Suzuki (18)3–2
- P312:24Cole Perfetti Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (12), Brenden Dillon (5)2–2
- P219:04Gabriel Vilardi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (22), Nikolaj Ehlers (13)2–1
- P215:04Christian Dvorak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (5), Brendan Gallagher (7)2–0
- P24:57Josh Anderson Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Mike Matheson (16), Jake Evans (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:57Josh Anderson Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Mike Matheson (16), Jake Evans (8)MTL 1 – 0 WPG · MTL 45% → 63% +19MTL 45% → 63%+19 pts
- P215:04Christian Dvorak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (5), Brendan Gallagher (7)MTL 2 – 0 WPG · MTL 67% → 85% +17MTL 67% → 85%+17 pts
- P219:04Gabriel Vilardi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (22), Nikolaj Ehlers (13)MTL 2 – 1 WPG · WPG 13% → 30% +17WPG 13% → 30%+17 pts
- P312:24Cole Perfetti Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (12), Brenden Dillon (5)MTL 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 17% → 52% +36WPG 17% → 52%+36 pts
- OT1:09Justin Barron Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (14), Nick Suzuki (18)MTL 3 – 2 WPG · MTL 48% → 92% +44MTL 48% → 92%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 65%
- Fair odds
- WPG -132
- MTL +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +15 | MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +104 Elo | WPG 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.2% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.7%4th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 10th of 316–5 | Road vs home | 8–612th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 1–0 WPG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.