Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Scott LaughtonGoals1
- Travis SanheimAssists2
- Scott LaughtonPoints2
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals2
- Alex DeBrincatAssists3
- Patrick KanePoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Patrick Kane Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Lucas Raymond Goal Snap Shot0–2
- P315:30Dylan Larkin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (9), Moritz Seider (16)6–6
- P314:53Owen Tippett Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (11), Rasmus Ristolainen (2)6–5
- P313:30Scott Laughton Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Joel Farabee (11), Tyson Foerster (8)5–5
- P35:51Garnet Hathaway Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Scott Laughton (12), Cam York (8)4–5
- P24:01Morgan Frost Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (20), Cam Atkinson (9)3–5
- P23:37Sean Couturier Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (19), Egor Zamula (5)2–5
- P119:42Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (5), Alex DeBrincat (16)1–5
- P115:38J.T. Compher Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Joe Veleno (6), Lucas Raymond (16)1–4
- P115:05Daniel Sprong Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Moritz Seider (15), Lucas Raymond (15)1–3
- P19:00Bobby Brink Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (10), Egor Zamula (4)1–2
- P18:16Patrick Kane Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (15), Justin Holl (4)0–2
- P14:30Patrick Kane Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (17), Alex DeBrincat (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:30Patrick Kane Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (17), Alex DeBrincat (14)PHI 0 – 1 DET · DET 58% → 72% +14DET 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P35:51Garnet Hathaway Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Scott Laughton (12), Cam York (8)PHI 4 – 5 DET · PHI 5% → 20% +14PHI 5% → 20%+14 pts
- P313:30Scott Laughton Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Joel Farabee (11), Tyson Foerster (8)PHI 5 – 5 DET · PHI 12% → 47% +35PHI 12% → 47%+35 pts
- P314:53Owen Tippett Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (11), Rasmus Ristolainen (2)PHI 6 – 5 DET · PHI 47% → 88% +41PHI 47% → 88%+41 pts
- P315:30Dylan Larkin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (9), Moritz Seider (16)PHI 6 – 6 DET · DET 10% → 52% +42DET 10% → 52%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Fair odds
- DET -141
- PHI +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −7 | PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +40 Elo | DET 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.39th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.7% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 5th of 319–6 | Road vs home | 8–818th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.