Nashville Predators at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Philip TomasinoGoals2
- Filip ForsbergAssists2
- Philip TomasinoPoints2
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals1
- Bobby BrinkAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:59Gustav Nyquist Goal (5) Poke, assists: Filip Forsberg (22)4–2
- P315:59Philip Tomasino Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (8)3–2
- P25:24Philip Tomasino Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Tommy Novak (9), Filip Forsberg (21)2–2
- P24:45Sean Couturier Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P21:05Cole Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (7)1–1
- P11:31Morgan Frost Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Bobby Brink (10), Owen Tippett (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:31Morgan Frost Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Bobby Brink (10), Owen Tippett (9)NSH 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 55% → 69% +14PHI 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P21:05Cole Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (7)NSH 1 – 1 PHI · NSH 29% → 46% +17NSH 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P24:45Sean Couturier Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 54% → 72% +18PHI 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P25:24Philip Tomasino Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Tommy Novak (9), Filip Forsberg (21)NSH 2 – 2 PHI · NSH 28% → 46% +18NSH 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P315:59Philip Tomasino Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (8)NSH 3 – 2 PHI · NSH 49% → 92% +43NSH 49% → 92%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- NSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +9 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +46 Elo | PHI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 31 |
| 20th of 3148.9% | Shot share | 53.8%5th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 90.8%12th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 12th of 317–7 | Road vs home | 8–716th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.