Vancouver Canucks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Elias PetterssonPoints2
Predators- Cody GlassGoals1
- Tommy NovakAssists1
- Jeremy LauzonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:48Cody Glass Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Cole Smith (10)5–2
- P31:16Teddy Blueger Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (32)5–1
- P215:24Pius Suter Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (9), Elias Pettersson (28)4–1
- P214:38Nils Hoglander Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (31), Filip Hronek (27)3–1
- P214:23Jeremy Lauzon Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (12), Tommy Novak (8)2–1
- P117:09Nils Aman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P116:38Elias Pettersson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (8), Pius Suter (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:38Elias Pettersson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (8), Pius Suter (2)VAN 1 – 0 NSH · VAN 46% → 63% +17VAN 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P117:09Nils Aman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneVAN 2 – 0 NSH · VAN 63% → 78% +15VAN 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P214:23Jeremy Lauzon Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (12), Tommy Novak (8)VAN 2 – 1 NSH · NSH 15% → 32% +17NSH 15% → 32%+17 pts
- P214:38Nils Hoglander Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (31), Filip Hronek (27)VAN 3 – 1 NSH · VAN 68% → 85% +17VAN 68% → 85%+17 pts
- P215:24Pius Suter Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (9), Elias Pettersson (28)VAN 4 – 1 NSH · VAN 86% → 95% +9VAN 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 54%
- Fair odds
- NSH -122
- VAN +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +12 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +31 Elo | NSH 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.4% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 31 |
| 2nd of 3192.1% | Save percentage | 91.1%11th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 9th of 319–7 | Road vs home | 11–56th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 2–0 NSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.