Vancouver Canucks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals1
- Tyler MyersAssists2
- Tyler MyersPoints2
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals2
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Nick FolignoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:44Cole Guttman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (14), Anthony Beauvillier (8)4–3
- P215:41Ilya Mikheyev Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Myers (13), Pius Suter (1)4–2
- P23:45Brock Boeser Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (30), Tyler Myers (12)3–2
- P23:04Dakota Joshua Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Conor Garland (10), Teddy Blueger (4)2–2
- P20:35Nick Foligno Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (13), Philipp Kurashev (11)1–2
- P118:15Elias Pettersson Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (29), Filip Hronek (26)1–1
- P19:59Nick Foligno Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Joey Anderson (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:35Nick Foligno Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (13), Philipp Kurashev (11)VAN 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 56% → 72% +17CHI 56% → 72%+17 pts
- P23:04Dakota Joshua Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Conor Garland (10), Teddy Blueger (4)VAN 2 – 2 CHI · VAN 27% → 44% +17VAN 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P23:45Brock Boeser Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (30), Tyler Myers (12)VAN 3 – 2 CHI · VAN 44% → 63% +18VAN 44% → 63%+18 pts
- P215:41Ilya Mikheyev Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Myers (13), Pius Suter (1)VAN 4 – 2 CHI · VAN 68% → 85% +17VAN 68% → 85%+17 pts
- P36:44Cole Guttman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (14), Anthony Beauvillier (8)VAN 4 – 3 CHI · CHI 7% → 24% +17CHI 7% → 24%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 48%
- Fair odds
- CHI -133
- VAN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +3 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +11 Elo | VAN 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.430th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.523rd of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.3 | Margin | −1.130th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.4% | Shot share | 45.4%29th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3192.2% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 11th of 318–7 | Road vs home | 5–827th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.