Vancouver Canucks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Teddy BluegerGoals1
- Conor GarlandAssists1
- Teddy BluegerPoints1
Wild- Frederick GaudreauGoals1
- Marcus FolignoAssists1
- Frederick GaudreauPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Mats Zuccarello Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P23:50Teddy Blueger Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dakota Joshua (5), Conor Garland (9)1–1
- P118:05Frederick Gaudreau Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Foligno (8), Pat Maroon (9)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:05Frederick Gaudreau Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Foligno (8), Pat Maroon (9)VAN 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 54% → 70% +16MIN 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P23:50Teddy Blueger Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dakota Joshua (5), Conor Garland (9)VAN 1 – 1 MIN · VAN 29% → 46% +18VAN 29% → 46%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Fair odds
- MIN -120
- VAN +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +18 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.44 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +21 Elo | MIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.4 | Margin | −0.222nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3148.2% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 31 |
| 4th of 3192.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%21st of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 31 |
| 9th of 318–6 | Road vs home | 6–514th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.