Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals2
- William NylanderAssists2
- Auston MatthewsPoints3
Blue Jackets- Justin DanforthGoals1
- Johnny GaudreauAssists1
- Justin DanforthPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:51William Nylander Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (13), Jake McCabe (9)4–1
- P28:21Auston Matthews Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (23), William Nylander (29)3–1
- P22:58John Tavares Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: TJ Brodie (7), William Nylander (28)2–1
- P20:22Justin Danforth Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (16), Adam Fantilli (11)1–1
- P18:20Auston Matthews Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:20Auston Matthews Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (22)TOR 1 – 0 CBJ · TOR 47% → 62% +15TOR 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P20:22Justin Danforth Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (16), Adam Fantilli (11)TOR 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 35% → 53% +18CBJ 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P22:58John Tavares Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: TJ Brodie (7), William Nylander (28)TOR 2 – 1 CBJ · TOR 47% → 65% +18TOR 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P28:21Auston Matthews Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (23), William Nylander (29)TOR 3 – 1 CBJ · TOR 67% → 83% +16TOR 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P311:51William Nylander Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (13), Jake McCabe (9)TOR 4 – 1 CBJ · TOR 97% → >99% +2TOR 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 48%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -115
- TOR +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −11 | TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +16 Elo | TOR 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.526th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 46.3%28th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%16th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 20th of 315–7 | Road vs home | 7–1126th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 CBJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.