Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins
Maple Leafs- Max DomiGoals1
- Tyler BertuzziAssists3
- Max DomiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:19William Nylander Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (7), Jake McCabe (7)0–7
- P214:04Noah Gregor Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (6), Conor Timmins (5)0–6
- P24:25John Tavares Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (25), Morgan Rielly (17)0–5
- P22:28Max Domi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (6), Mitchell Marner (21)0–4
- P118:25Bobby McMann Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (5), Pontus Holmberg (1)0–3
- P110:15Mitchell Marner Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (6), Max Domi (15)0–2
- P11:57Matthew Knies Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:57Matthew Knies Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (14)PIT 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 55% → 69% +14TOR 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P110:15Mitchell Marner Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (6), Max Domi (15)PIT 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 70% → 82% +12TOR 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P118:25Bobby McMann Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (5), Pontus Holmberg (1)PIT 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 84% → 92% +8TOR 84% → 92%+8 pts
- P22:28Max Domi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (6), Mitchell Marner (21)PIT 0 – 4 TOR · TOR 93% → 97% +4TOR 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P24:25John Tavares Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (25), Morgan Rielly (17)PIT 0 – 5 TOR · TOR 98% → >99% +2TOR 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Fair odds
- TOR -125
- PIT +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +52 Elo | TOR 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 31 |
| 7th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.310th of 31 |
| 13th of 3150.7% | Shot share | 50.5%14th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3192.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 17th of 317–8 | Road vs home | 8–611th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.