Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- Timothy LiljegrenAssists2
- Timothy LiljegrenPoints2
Sabres- Jeff SkinnerGoals2
- Alex TuchAssists4
- Alex TuchPoints4
Scoring summary
- P315:02Kyle Okposo Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (4), Ryan Johnson (2)3–9
- P312:23Jeff Skinner Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (15), Tage Thompson (10)3–8
- P311:08Jack Quinn Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (12), Connor Clifton (9)3–7
- P211:04Kyle Okposo Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P28:22Tage Thompson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (14), Jeff Skinner (11)3–5
- P25:42Calle Jarnkrok Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: William Nylander (27), Timothy Liljegren (3)3–4
- P24:44Rasmus Dahlin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (9), Alex Tuch (13)2–4
- P115:51Jeff Skinner Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (12)2–3
- P113:44Owen Power Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Zach Benson (9), Casey Mittelstadt (20)2–2
- P112:39Max Domi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (19), Timothy Liljegren (2)2–1
- P17:28Auston Matthews Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P12:27Jordan Greenway Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (8), Zach Benson (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:28Auston Matthews Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 1 – 1 BUF · TOR 31% → 46% +15TOR 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P112:39Max Domi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (19), Timothy Liljegren (2)TOR 2 – 1 BUF · TOR 47% → 63% +16TOR 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P113:44Owen Power Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Zach Benson (9), Casey Mittelstadt (20)TOR 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 37% → 53% +16BUF 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P115:51Jeff Skinner Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (12)TOR 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 53% → 69% +16BUF 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P28:22Tage Thompson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (14), Jeff Skinner (11)TOR 3 – 5 BUF · BUF 72% → 86% +14BUF 72% → 86%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 49%
- Fair odds
- BUF -117
- TOR +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −13 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +4 Elo | TOR 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.728th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.3% | Shot share | 49.8%15th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 88.7%29th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 17th of 315–6 | Road vs home | 5–928th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.