New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals2
- Blake WheelerAssists2
- Mika ZibanejadPoints2
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals2
- William NylanderAssists1
- Auston MatthewsPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:47Mika Zibanejad Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (2), Chris Kreider (10)5–2
- P315:08Artemi Panarin Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (16), Vincent Trocheck (20)4–2
- P38:08Braden Schneider Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (15), Blake Wheeler (7)3–2
- P31:16Auston Matthews Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (8), William Nylander (26)2–2
- P29:50Alexis Lafrenière Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (6), Erik Gustafsson (14)2–1
- P27:32Auston Matthews Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (18), Tyler Bertuzzi (8)1–1
- P26:11Mika Zibanejad Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Blake Wheeler (6), Chris Kreider (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:11Mika Zibanejad Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Blake Wheeler (6), Chris Kreider (9)NYR 1 – 0 TOR · NYR 46% → 65% +19NYR 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P27:32Auston Matthews Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (18), Tyler Bertuzzi (8)NYR 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 35% → 54% +19TOR 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P29:50Alexis Lafrenière Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (6), Erik Gustafsson (14)NYR 2 – 1 TOR · NYR 46% → 66% +20NYR 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P31:16Auston Matthews Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (8), William Nylander (26)NYR 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 28% → 53% +25TOR 28% → 53%+25 pts
- P38:08Braden Schneider Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (15), Blake Wheeler (7)NYR 3 – 2 TOR · NYR 48% → 78% +30NYR 48% → 78%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Fair odds
- TOR -125
- NYR +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +21 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.51 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +55 Elo | TOR 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 31 |
| 9th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.216th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%15th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3111–5 | Road vs home | 9–610th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.