New York Rangers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals2
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Vincent TrocheckPoints2
Bruins- Trent FredericGoals1
- James van RiemsdykAssists1
- Trent FredericPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:03Vincent Trocheck Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (26), Erik Gustafsson (13)2–1
- P310:50Vincent Trocheck Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (17), Adam Fox (18)1–1
- P22:07Trent Frederic Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (14), Matthew Poitras (8)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:07Trent Frederic Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (14), Matthew Poitras (8)NYR 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 55% → 72% +17BOS 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P310:50Vincent Trocheck Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (17), Adam Fox (18)NYR 1 – 1 BOS · NYR 16% → 48% +32NYR 16% → 48%+32 pts
- OT2:03Vincent Trocheck Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (26), Erik Gustafsson (13)NYR 2 – 1 BOS · NYR 49% → 95% +46NYR 49% → 95%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Fair odds
- BOS -126
- NYR +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | BOS and NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +5 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +59 Elo | BOS 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.2% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 92.4%1st of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3110–5 | Road vs home | 9–31st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.