Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- Joel FarabeeAssists1
- Joel FarabeePoints2
Canucks- Teddy BluegerGoals1
- Dakota JoshuaAssists1
- Teddy BluegerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P35:01Garnet Hathaway Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (6)4–1
- P30:25Teddy Blueger Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (7), Quinn Hughes (35)3–1
- P217:09Joel Farabee Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (11)3–0
- P216:24Sean Walker Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (10), Travis Konecny (12)2–0
- P215:03Egor Zamula Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (9), Joel Farabee (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:03Egor Zamula Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (9), Joel Farabee (12)PHI 1 – 0 VAN · PHI 46% → 68% +22PHI 46% → 68%+22 pts
- P216:24Sean Walker Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (10), Travis Konecny (12)PHI 2 – 0 VAN · PHI 69% → 86% +17PHI 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P217:09Joel Farabee Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (11)PHI 3 – 0 VAN · PHI 86% → 95% +9PHI 86% → 95%+9 pts
- P30:25Teddy Blueger Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (7), Quinn Hughes (35)PHI 3 – 1 VAN · VAN 3% → 12% +8VAN 3% → 12%+8 pts
- P35:01Garnet Hathaway Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (6)PHI 4 – 1 VAN · PHI 92% → 98% +7PHI 92% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 58%
- Fair odds
- VAN -125
- PHI +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −5 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +56 Elo | VAN 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.91st of 31 |
| 10th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +1.31st of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.7% | Shot share | 48.3%23rd of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 6th of 319–7 | Road vs home | 13–41st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.