San Jose Sharks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- Mario FerraroAssists3
- Mario FerraroPoints3
Canucks- Quinn HughesGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists2
- Quinn HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:47Quinn Hughes Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–7
- P315:43Pius Suter Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (34), J.T. Miller (33)4–6
- P313:16Jacob MacDonald Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Zadina (6), Jan Rutta (6)4–5
- P219:13Dakota Joshua Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (13), Teddy Blueger (8)3–5
- P211:08Fabian Zetterlund Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (8), Mikael Granlund (19)3–4
- P28:36Sam Lafferty Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Ian Cole (5), Conor Garland (12)2–4
- P26:03Nils Aman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (7)2–3
- P116:22Tomas Hertl Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Filip Zadina (5), Mario Ferraro (7)2–2
- P113:32Mikael Granlund Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Anthony Duclair (6), Mario Ferraro (6)1–2
- P16:51Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (32), Elias Pettersson (30)0–2
- P11:34Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (10), Elias Pettersson (29)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:34Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (10), Elias Pettersson (29)SJ 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 58% → 71% +14VAN 58% → 71%+14 pts
- P116:22Tomas Hertl Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Filip Zadina (5), Mario Ferraro (7)SJ 2 – 2 VAN · SJ 28% → 43% +16SJ 28% → 43%+16 pts
- P26:03Nils Aman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (7)SJ 2 – 3 VAN · VAN 56% → 74% +18VAN 56% → 74%+18 pts
- P211:08Fabian Zetterlund Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (8), Mikael Granlund (19)SJ 3 – 4 VAN · SJ 12% → 25% +14SJ 12% → 25%+14 pts
- P219:13Dakota Joshua Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (13), Teddy Blueger (8)SJ 3 – 5 VAN · VAN 77% → 91% +14VAN 77% → 91%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 68%
- Fair odds
- VAN -136
- SJ +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.4 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +4 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +128 Elo | VAN 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.2 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 31 |
| 31st of 314.1 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.9 | Margin | +1.31st of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.3% | Shot share | 48.3%24th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 92.0%2nd of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 31st of 313–13 | Road vs home | 12–42nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 1–2 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.