Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists2
- Conor GarlandPoints2
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Miro HeiskanenAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:50Matt Duchene Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (6), Wyatt Johnston (11)3–4
- P316:30Thomas Harley Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (20), Miro Heiskanen (19)3–3
- P315:04Conor Garland Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (6), Teddy Blueger (6)3–2
- P212:26Brock Boeser Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (31), Quinn Hughes (33)2–2
- P27:51Roope Hintz Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (19), Joe Pavelski (17)1–2
- P110:51Tyler Seguin Goal (10) Poke, assists: Matt Duchene (18), Miro Heiskanen (18)1–1
- P12:51Dakota Joshua Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (11), Teddy Blueger (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:51Roope Hintz Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (19), Joe Pavelski (17)VAN 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 53% → 71% +19DAL 53% → 71%+19 pts
- P212:26Brock Boeser Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (31), Quinn Hughes (33)VAN 2 – 2 DAL · VAN 27% → 47% +20VAN 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P315:04Conor Garland Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (6), Teddy Blueger (6)VAN 3 – 2 DAL · VAN 49% → 89% +40VAN 49% → 89%+40 pts
- P316:30Thomas Harley Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (20), Miro Heiskanen (19)VAN 3 – 3 DAL · DAL 7% → 51% +44DAL 7% → 51%+44 pts
- OT4:50Matt Duchene Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (6), Wyatt Johnston (11)VAN 3 – 4 DAL · DAL 50% → >99% +50DAL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 49%
- Fair odds
- DAL -116
- VAN +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −11 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +9 Elo | VAN 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.213th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.3 | Margin | +0.48th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.6% | Shot share | 48.1%23rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3192.1% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 8th of 3110–7 | Road vs home | 8–613th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 1–0 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.