Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Mitch MarnerGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists3
- Morgan RiellyPoints3
Blue Jackets- Johnny GaudreauGoals1
- Johnny GaudreauAssists2
- Johnny GaudreauPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:56Johnny Gaudreau Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Damon Severson (7), Justin Danforth (8)5–6
- P313:46Adam Fantilli Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (18)5–5
- P219:05John Tavares Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (31), Morgan Rielly (23)5–4
- P212:43Kent Johnson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Emil Bemstrom (6)4–4
- P211:05Dmitri Voronkov Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (17), Ivan Provorov (18)4–3
- P29:42William Nylander Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (15), Morgan Rielly (22)4–2
- P23:20Brendan Gaunce Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (7), Damon Severson (6)3–2
- P21:35Nicholas Robertson Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Timothy Liljegren (4), Max Domi (16)3–1
- P112:55Auston Matthews Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (24)2–1
- P111:17Cole Sillinger Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Bean (3)1–1
- P14:14Mitchell Marner Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:55Auston Matthews Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (24)TOR 2 – 1 CBJ · TOR 46% → 62% +16TOR 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P212:43Kent Johnson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Emil Bemstrom (6)TOR 4 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 32% → 53% +21CBJ 32% → 53%+21 pts
- P219:05John Tavares Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (31), Morgan Rielly (23)TOR 5 – 4 CBJ · TOR 47% → 71% +24TOR 47% → 71%+24 pts
- P313:46Adam Fantilli Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (18)TOR 5 – 5 CBJ · CBJ 14% → 51% +38CBJ 14% → 51%+38 pts
- OT2:56Johnny Gaudreau Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Damon Severson (7), Justin Danforth (8)TOR 5 – 6 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 98% +47CBJ 51% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 52%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −20 | −4 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.50 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +15 Elo | CBJ 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.628th of 31 |
| 13th of 3150.3% | Shot share | 46.4%28th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 31 |
| 17th of 316–7 | Road vs home | 7–1229th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 CBJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.