Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Maple Leafs- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- William NylanderAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:33Brady Tkachuk Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (16)4–2
- P33:44Drake Batherson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (15), Travis Hamonic (3)3–2
- P214:25Drake Batherson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (26)2–2
- P210:17Parker Kelly Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (19)1–2
- P16:04Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Morgan Rielly (20), William Nylander (30)0–2
- P15:41Matthew Knies Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Auston Matthews (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:41Matthew Knies Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Auston Matthews (14)OTT 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 56% → 70% +14TOR 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P16:04Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Morgan Rielly (20), William Nylander (30)OTT 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 70% → 82% +12TOR 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P210:17Parker Kelly Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (19)OTT 1 – 2 TOR · OTT 12% → 26% +14OTT 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P214:25Drake Batherson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (26)OTT 2 – 2 TOR · OTT 25% → 46% +20OTT 25% → 46%+20 pts
- P33:44Drake Batherson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (15), Travis Hamonic (3)OTT 3 – 2 TOR · OTT 47% → 73% +26OTT 47% → 73%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Fair odds
- TOR -130
- OTT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +16 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +85 Elo | TOR 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.39th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 50.2%14th of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%19th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 28th of 313–7 | Road vs home | 9–714th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.