Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Kris LetangGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists2
- Kris LetangPoints3
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Brady TkachukAssists2
- Brady TkachukPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:10Tim Stützle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (15)4–5
- P317:34Kris Letang Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (10), Evgeni Malkin (16)4–4
- P31:51Drew O'Connor Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (9), Kris Letang (14)3–4
- P27:30Erik Brannstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (9), Jake Sanderson (13)2–4
- P24:59Rickard Rakell Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (16), Reilly Smith (10)2–3
- P22:10Brady Tkachuk Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Claude Giroux (18), Jakob Chychrun (18)1–3
- P115:01Josh Norris Goal (12) Batted, assists: Brady Tkachuk (8), Erik Brannstrom (5)1–2
- P114:31Lars Eller Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (9), Kris Letang (13)1–1
- P111:07Jakob Chychrun Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (17), Josh Norris (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:07Jakob Chychrun Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (17), Josh Norris (8)PIT 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 54% → 69% +15OTT 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P114:31Lars Eller Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (9), Kris Letang (13)PIT 1 – 1 OTT · PIT 30% → 46% +16PIT 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P115:01Josh Norris Goal (12) Batted, assists: Brady Tkachuk (8), Erik Brannstrom (5)PIT 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 54% → 70% +16OTT 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P317:34Kris Letang Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (10), Evgeni Malkin (16)PIT 4 – 4 OTT · PIT 3% → 49% +46PIT 3% → 49%+46 pts
- OT1:10Tim Stützle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (15)PIT 4 – 5 OTT · OTT 51% → 93% +42OTT 51% → 93%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 53%
- Fair odds
- OTT -120
- PIT +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +5 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +21 Elo | OTT 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 12th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 52.4%7th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 88.6%29th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 17th of 317–9 | Road vs home | 6–922nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.