Minnesota Wild at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Jake MiddletonGoals1
- Brock FaberAssists1
- Ryan HartmanPoints1
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Marcus PetterssonAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:20Sidney Crosby Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (20), Evgeni Malkin (15)3–4
- P35:33Vinni Lettieri Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jon Merrill (3), Daemon Hunt (1)3–3
- P217:30Jake Middleton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (10), Kirill Kaprizov (17)2–3
- P215:06Ryan Hartman Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (12), Marcus Johansson (12)1–3
- P23:34Evgeni Malkin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (4), Marcus Pettersson (8)0–3
- P20:36Jake Guentzel Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (16), Sidney Crosby (15)0–2
- P17:39Reilly Smith Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (3), Marcus Pettersson (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:39Reilly Smith Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (3), Marcus Pettersson (7)MIN 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 54% → 69% +15PIT 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P20:36Jake Guentzel Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (16), Sidney Crosby (15)MIN 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 71% → 84% +13PIT 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P217:30Jake Middleton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (10), Kirill Kaprizov (17)MIN 2 – 3 PIT · MIN 10% → 25% +15MIN 10% → 25%+15 pts
- P35:33Vinni Lettieri Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jon Merrill (3), Daemon Hunt (1)MIN 3 – 3 PIT · MIN 21% → 48% +27MIN 21% → 48%+27 pts
- P36:20Sidney Crosby Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (20), Evgeni Malkin (15)MIN 3 – 4 PIT · PIT 52% → 79% +27PIT 52% → 79%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Fair odds
- PIT -120
- MIN +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +20 | +6 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.49 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +17 Elo | PIT 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 50.7%13th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 91.8%4th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 22nd of 315–9 | Road vs home | 5–723rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.