Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Teuvo TeravainenGoals1
- Jaccob SlavinAssists1
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints1
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Rickard RakellAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Sidney Crosby Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P214:52Teuvo Teravainen Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (8), Jaccob Slavin (15)1–1
- P18:51Sidney Crosby Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Rickard Rakell (5), Jake Guentzel (21)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:51Sidney Crosby Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Rickard Rakell (5), Jake Guentzel (21)CAR 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 54% → 69% +15PIT 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P214:52Teuvo Teravainen Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (8), Jaccob Slavin (15)CAR 1 – 1 PIT · CAR 26% → 47% +21CAR 26% → 47%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Fair odds
- PIT -119
- CAR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +4 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +12 Elo | PIT 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.1 | Margin | 0.015th of 31 |
| 1st of 3157.2% | Shot share | 50.8%12th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.0% | Save percentage | 91.7%4th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 18th of 318–10 | Road vs home | 6–721st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.