Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- William CarrierGoals2
- Brett HowdenAssists2
- William CarrierPoints2
Hurricanes- Brady SkjeiGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists3
- Sebastian AhoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:29William Carrier Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Brett Howden (6), Michael Amadio (11)3–6
- P318:36Jack Eichel Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Nicolas Hague (6), Mark Stone (23)2–6
- P34:44Brady Skjei Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–6
- P30:10Seth Jarvis Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (15), Sebastian Aho (18)1–5
- P212:39Michael Bunting Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (17), Brent Burns (9)1–4
- P210:11Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (6), Michael Bunting (14)1–3
- P24:36Jordan Staal Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Fast (6), Jordan Martinook (8)1–2
- P113:15William Carrier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (11), Brett Howden (5)1–1
- P110:27Andrei Svechnikov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (14), Sebastian Aho (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:27Andrei Svechnikov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (14), Sebastian Aho (16)VGK 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 54% → 69% +15CAR 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P113:15William Carrier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (11), Brett Howden (5)VGK 1 – 1 CAR · VGK 30% → 46% +16VGK 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P24:36Jordan Staal Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Fast (6), Jordan Martinook (8)VGK 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 54% → 71% +18CAR 54% → 71%+18 pts
- P210:11Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (6), Michael Bunting (14)VGK 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 73% → 87% +14CAR 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P212:39Michael Bunting Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (17), Brent Burns (9)VGK 1 – 4 CAR · CAR 88% → 96% +8CAR 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 54%
- Fair odds
- CAR -121
- VGK +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +15 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +25 Elo | CAR 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+1.1 | Margin | 0.015th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 57.3%1st of 31 |
| 3rd of 3192.0% | Save percentage | 87.8%31st of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 5th of 319–6 | Road vs home | 8–59th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.