Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Josh NorrisGoals1
- Josh NorrisAssists1
- Josh NorrisPoints2
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists3
- Mark StonePoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:39Brady Tkachuk Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (13), Josh Norris (7)3–6
- P35:43William Karlsson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (22), Jack Eichel (22)2–6
- P219:48Ivan Barbashev Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (5), Mark Stone (21)2–5
- P211:31Chandler Stephenson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (20)2–4
- P29:53Nicolas Roy Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Ben Hutton (6)2–3
- P113:32Jonathan Marchessault Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (4), Brayden McNabb (10)2–2
- P110:55Ridly Greig Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (16), Jakob Chychrun (16)2–1
- P16:25Josh Norris Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (23), Jake Sanderson (10)1–1
- P11:37Jack Eichel Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (8), Ben Hutton (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:25Josh Norris Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (23), Jake Sanderson (10)OTT 1 – 1 VGK · OTT 29% → 44% +14OTT 29% → 44%+14 pts
- P110:55Ridly Greig Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (16), Jakob Chychrun (16)OTT 2 – 1 VGK · OTT 44% → 60% +16OTT 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P113:32Jonathan Marchessault Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (4), Brayden McNabb (10)OTT 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 40% → 56% +16VGK 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P29:53Nicolas Roy Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Ben Hutton (6)OTT 2 – 3 VGK · VGK 55% → 74% +19VGK 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P211:31Chandler Stephenson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (20)OTT 2 – 4 VGK · VGK 74% → 88% +14VGK 74% → 88%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 64%
- Fair odds
- VGK -131
- OTT +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +16 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +98 Elo | VGK 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.54th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +1.02nd of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.6% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 92.1%2nd of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313–5 | Road vs home | 11–43rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.