Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals1
- Drake BathersonAssists1
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals4
- Valeri NichushkinAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints5
Scoring summary
- P319:37Nathan MacKinnon Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (17)4–6
- P37:10Mikko Rantanen Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (35), Cale Makar (31)4–5
- P36:16Nathan MacKinnon Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (13), Valeri Nichushkin (16)4–4
- P219:43Mikko Rantanen Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–3
- P214:47Drake Batherson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (14), Artem Zub (8)4–2
- P21:32Jacob Bernard-Docker Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jiri Smejkal (1), Mark Kastelic (1)3–2
- P118:28Nathan MacKinnon Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (15)2–2
- P115:28Ridly Greig Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Dominik Kubalik (2), Jakob Chychrun (17)2–1
- P115:13Josh Norris Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (14), Tim Stützle (25)1–1
- P12:43Nathan MacKinnon Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (10), Cale Makar (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:28Nathan MacKinnon Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (15)OTT 2 – 2 COL · COL 38% → 55% +17COL 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P21:32Jacob Bernard-Docker Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jiri Smejkal (1), Mark Kastelic (1)OTT 3 – 2 COL · OTT 45% → 63% +18OTT 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P219:43Mikko Rantanen Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 4 – 3 COL · COL 12% → 30% +17COL 12% → 30%+17 pts
- P36:16Nathan MacKinnon Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (13), Valeri Nichushkin (16)OTT 4 – 4 COL · COL 25% → 53% +28COL 25% → 53%+28 pts
- P37:10Mikko Rantanen Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (35), Cale Makar (31)OTT 4 – 5 COL · COL 53% → 81% +28COL 53% → 81%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 61%
- Fair odds
- COL -128
- OTT +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −2 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +76 Elo | COL 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.112th of 31 |
| 18th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.57th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 52.7%6th of 31 |
| 27th of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–6 | Road vs home | 12–41st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.