Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints2
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Ryan DonatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:19Tyler Johnson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Nick Foligno (9), Nikita Zaitsev (4)2–3
- P112:56Lukas Reichel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (16), Ryan Donato (7)2–2
- P111:25Valeri Nichushkin Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Mikko Rantanen (25), Sam Malinski (4)2–1
- P19:22Valeri Nichushkin Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (9), Nathan MacKinnon (34)1–1
- P17:29Ryan Donato Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Zaitsev (3), Connor Bedard (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:29Ryan Donato Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Zaitsev (3), Connor Bedard (15)COL 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 53% → 68% +15CHI 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P19:22Valeri Nichushkin Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (9), Nathan MacKinnon (34)COL 1 – 1 CHI · COL 32% → 47% +15COL 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P111:25Valeri Nichushkin Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Mikko Rantanen (25), Sam Malinski (4)COL 2 – 1 CHI · COL 47% → 63% +16COL 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P112:56Lukas Reichel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (16), Ryan Donato (7)COL 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 37% → 53% +16CHI 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P38:19Tyler Johnson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Nick Foligno (9), Nikita Zaitsev (4)COL 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 51% → 81% +29CHI 51% → 81%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 46%
- Fair odds
- CHI -114
- COL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +1 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +26 Elo | COL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.430th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −1.130th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.4% | Shot share | 45.6%29th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 13th of 317–7 | Road vs home | 5–927th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.