Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Egor ZamulaGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Andrew MangiapaneAssists3
- Andrew MangiapanePoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:38Egor Zamula Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (14), Morgan Frost (6)3–4
- P317:42Blake Coleman Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (14)2–4
- P316:36Bobby Brink Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Cam Atkinson (10), Travis Konecny (13)2–3
- P314:29Nazem Kadri Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (13)1–3
- P37:29Dennis Gilbert Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (12), Blake Coleman (13)1–2
- P218:21Mikael Backlund Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (12), Dennis Gilbert (6)1–1
- P19:44Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (7), Joel Farabee (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:44Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (7), Joel Farabee (13)PHI 1 – 0 CGY · PHI 46% → 62% +16PHI 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P218:21Mikael Backlund Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (12), Dennis Gilbert (6)PHI 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 29% → 52% +23CGY 29% → 52%+23 pts
- P37:29Dennis Gilbert Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (12), Blake Coleman (13)PHI 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 52% → 80% +28CGY 52% → 80%+28 pts
- P314:29Nazem Kadri Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (13)PHI 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 89% → >99% +10CGY 89% → >99%+10 pts
- P316:36Bobby Brink Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Cam Atkinson (10), Travis Konecny (13)PHI 2 – 3 CGY · PHI <1% → 6% +6PHI <1% → 6%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 50%
- Fair odds
- CGY -118
- PHI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +7 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +3 Elo | CGY 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.4% | Shot share | 51.9%9th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 89.7%24th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 7th of 3110–8 | Road vs home | 8–818th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.