Philadelphia Flyers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Scott LaughtonAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints1
Kraken- Justin SchultzGoals1
- Oliver BjorkstrandAssists2
- Oliver BjorkstrandPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:35Justin Schultz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (18), Yanni Gourde (9)1–2
- P35:45Vince Dunn Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (17), Alex Wennberg (10)1–1
- P116:21Travis Konecny Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (13), Travis Sanheim (21)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:21Travis Konecny Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (13), Travis Sanheim (21)PHI 1 – 0 SEA · PHI 43% → 60% +17PHI 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P35:45Vince Dunn Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (17), Alex Wennberg (10)PHI 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 26% → 54% +28SEA 26% → 54%+28 pts
- OT2:35Justin Schultz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (18), Yanni Gourde (9)PHI 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 52% → 97% +45SEA 52% → 97%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Fair odds
- SEA -141
- PHI +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 3.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +13 | PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +39 Elo | SEA 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.5% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 4th of 3110–7 | Road vs home | 6–1130th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.