Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals1
- Cole SillingerAssists1
- Damon SeversonPoints1
Sabres- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Owen PowerAssists2
- Owen PowerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:20Jeff Skinner Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Power (14), Tage Thompson (11)2–3
- P311:52Casey Mittelstadt Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (10), Mattias Samuelsson (4)2–2
- P213:45Adam Fantilli Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (9), Cole Sillinger (10)2–1
- P20:40Jack Quinn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (14), Owen Power (13)1–1
- P119:47Damon Severson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (12), Yegor Chinakhov (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:47Damon Severson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (12), Yegor Chinakhov (7)CBJ 1 – 0 BUF · CBJ 42% → 59% +18CBJ 42% → 59%+18 pts
- P20:40Jack Quinn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (14), Owen Power (13)CBJ 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 40% → 58% +18BUF 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P213:45Adam Fantilli Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (9), Cole Sillinger (10)CBJ 2 – 1 BUF · CBJ 43% → 65% +22CBJ 43% → 65%+22 pts
- P311:52Casey Mittelstadt Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (10), Mattias Samuelsson (4)CBJ 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 18% → 54% +35BUF 18% → 54%+35 pts
- OT1:20Jeff Skinner Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Power (14), Tage Thompson (11)CBJ 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 52% → 94% +41BUF 52% → 94%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 63%
- Fair odds
- BUF -149
- CBJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +4 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +89 Elo | BUF 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.627th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.5 | Margin | −0.628th of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.2% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 31 |
| 19th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 88.5%30th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 29th of 314–12 | Road vs home | 6–1029th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.