Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals1
- Jordan GreenwayAssists2
- Jordan GreenwayPoints2
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists2
- Mika ZibanejadPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:28Chris Kreider Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (20), Adam Fox (19)3–4
- P36:50Casey Mittelstadt Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Greenway (7)3–3
- P27:13Mika Zibanejad Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Chris Kreider (13), Blake Wheeler (8)2–3
- P21:42Jack Quinn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (13), JJ Peterka (13)2–2
- P116:37Rasmus Dahlin Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (6)1–2
- P115:35Artemi Panarin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (19)0–2
- P17:19Ryan Lindgren Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (7), Nick Bonino (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:19Ryan Lindgren Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (7), Nick Bonino (4)BUF 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 51% → 67% +15NYR 51% → 67%+15 pts
- P21:42Jack Quinn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (13), JJ Peterka (13)BUF 2 – 2 NYR · BUF 31% → 49% +17BUF 31% → 49%+17 pts
- P27:13Mika Zibanejad Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Chris Kreider (13), Blake Wheeler (8)BUF 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 51% → 70% +19NYR 51% → 70%+19 pts
- P36:50Casey Mittelstadt Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Greenway (7)BUF 3 – 3 NYR · BUF 21% → 49% +28BUF 21% → 49%+28 pts
- OT2:28Chris Kreider Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (20), Adam Fox (19)BUF 3 – 4 NYR · NYR 50% → 96% +46NYR 50% → 96%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 55%
- Fair odds
- NYR -106
- BUF +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.1 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −9 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +35 Elo | NYR 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 31 |
| 28th of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 91.1%9th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 20th of 317–10 | Road vs home | 9–44th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–1 NYR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.