Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Warren FoegeleGoals1
- Warren FoegeleAssists1
- Warren FoegelePoints2
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Chris KreiderAssists2
- Mika ZibanejadPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:59Will Cuylle Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–3
- P315:42Mika Zibanejad Goal (12) Poke, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (9), Chris Kreider (12)4–2
- P39:52Ryan McLeod Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (8)4–1
- P36:36Warren Foegele Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (6), Cody Ceci (8)3–1
- P34:17Evander Kane Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Derek Ryan (5)2–1
- P33:07Zach Hyman Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Mattias Ekholm (10), Connor McDavid (32)1–1
- P111:03Blake Wheeler Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (18), Chris Kreider (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:03Blake Wheeler Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (18), Chris Kreider (11)EDM 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 59% → 74% +15NYR 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P33:07Zach Hyman Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Mattias Ekholm (10), Connor McDavid (32)EDM 1 – 1 NYR · EDM 20% → 44% +24EDM 20% → 44%+24 pts
- P34:17Evander Kane Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Derek Ryan (5)EDM 2 – 1 NYR · EDM 45% → 72% +27EDM 45% → 72%+27 pts
- P36:36Warren Foegele Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (6), Cody Ceci (8)EDM 3 – 1 NYR · EDM 74% → 92% +18EDM 74% → 92%+18 pts
- P39:52Ryan McLeod Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (8)EDM 4 – 1 NYR · EDM 95% → >99% +4EDM 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 65%
- Fair odds
- NYR -153
- EDM +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.5 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +14 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +110 Elo | NYR 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.64th of 31 |
| 4th of 3155.0% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 31 |
| 30th of 3188.4% | Save percentage | 91.3%9th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 24th of 315–9 | Road vs home | 9–32nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 0–1 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.