Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Charlie CoyleGoals2
- Brad MarchandAssists2
- Charlie CoylePoints2
Sabres- Owen PowerAssists1
- Owen PowerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P35:11Erik Johnson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Power (12), Casey Mittelstadt (21)4–1
- P213:44Morgan Geekie Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (16), Brad Marchand (17)4–0
- P24:18Charlie Coyle Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (9), David Pastrnak (25)3–0
- P113:42Charlie Coyle Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (8), Brad Marchand (16)2–0
- P14:19Mason Lohrei Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (16), Trent Frederic (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:19Mason Lohrei Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (16), Trent Frederic (8)BOS 1 – 0 BUF · BOS 46% → 61% +15BOS 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P113:42Charlie Coyle Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (8), Brad Marchand (16)BOS 2 – 0 BUF · BOS 63% → 77% +14BOS 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P24:18Charlie Coyle Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (9), David Pastrnak (25)BOS 3 – 0 BUF · BOS 81% → 91% +10BOS 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P213:44Morgan Geekie Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (16), Brad Marchand (17)BOS 4 – 0 BUF · BOS 94% → 98% +4BOS 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P35:11Erik Johnson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Power (12), Casey Mittelstadt (21)BOS 4 – 1 BUF · BUF <1% → 2% +1BUF <1% → 2%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 49%
- Fair odds
- BUF -116
- BOS +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.1 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −11 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +8 Elo | BOS 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.121st of 31 |
| 5th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.526th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.2% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.0% | Save percentage | 88.6%29th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 11th of 319–8 | Road vs home | 6–924th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.