Minnesota Wild at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Jake MiddletonAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- Pavel ZachaAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:54Kirill Kaprizov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (8)4–3
- P318:54Brad Marchand Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (7), Pavel Zacha (13)3–3
- P315:10Ryan Hartman Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (8)3–2
- P313:12Kirill Kaprizov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (7), Brock Faber (13)2–2
- P119:59David Pastrnak Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (12), James van Riemsdyk (15)1–2
- P111:29David Pastrnak Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: John Beecher (2)1–1
- P17:44Marcus Johansson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (3), Alex Goligoski (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:59David Pastrnak Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (12), James van Riemsdyk (15)MIN 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 58% → 74% +16BOS 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P313:12Kirill Kaprizov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (7), Brock Faber (13)MIN 2 – 2 BOS · MIN 12% → 47% +34MIN 12% → 47%+34 pts
- P315:10Ryan Hartman Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (8)MIN 3 – 2 BOS · MIN 47% → 89% +42MIN 47% → 89%+42 pts
- P318:54Brad Marchand Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (7), Pavel Zacha (13)MIN 3 – 3 BOS · BOS <1% → 51% +51BOS <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT2:54Kirill Kaprizov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (8)MIN 4 – 3 BOS · MIN 48% → 97% +49MIN 48% → 97%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Fair odds
- BOS -151
- MIN +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 3.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −9 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +95 Elo | BOS 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 31 |
| 20th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 92.5%1st of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 24th of 315–10 | Road vs home | 9–45th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.