Boston Bruins at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Danton HeinenAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals1
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists1
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:53Morgan Geekie Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (7), Trent Frederic (7)2–3
- P33:10Marcus Foligno Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Pat Maroon (10), Frederick Gaudreau (4)1–3
- P27:22Kirill Kaprizov Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Goligoski (5), Joel Eriksson Ek (9)1–2
- P25:57Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (15) , assists: none1–1
- P12:37David Pastrnak Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (15), Brad Marchand (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:37David Pastrnak Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (15), Brad Marchand (15)BOS 1 – 0 MIN · BOS 41% → 56% +15BOS 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P25:57Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (15) , assists: noneBOS 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 38% → 57% +19MIN 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P27:22Kirill Kaprizov Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Goligoski (5), Joel Eriksson Ek (9)BOS 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 57% → 75% +18MIN 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P33:10Marcus Foligno Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Pat Maroon (10), Frederick Gaudreau (4)BOS 1 – 3 MIN · MIN 79% → 93% +14MIN 79% → 93%+14 pts
- P313:53Morgan Geekie Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (7), Trent Frederic (7)BOS 2 – 3 MIN · BOS <1% → 11% +10BOS <1% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Fair odds
- MIN -143
- BOS +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −10 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +51 Elo | MIN 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 49.7%16th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%20th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 8th of 319–7 | Road vs home | 8–510th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.