Montreal Canadiens at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists2
- David SavardPoints2
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:55Kirill Kaprizov Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (13), Brock Faber (14)3–4
- P316:57Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (3) Deflected, assists: David Savard (3), Mike Matheson (18)3–3
- P38:57Brock Faber Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (19), Marco Rossi (10)2–3
- P31:09Nick Suzuki Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (7), Mike Matheson (17)2–2
- P28:17David Savard Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (15), Nick Suzuki (19)1–2
- P114:54Marco Rossi Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (2), Marcus Foligno (9)0–2
- P113:19Matt Boldy Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (18), Marco Rossi (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:19Matt Boldy Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (18), Marco Rossi (9)MTL 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 55% → 71% +16MIN 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P31:09Nick Suzuki Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (7), Mike Matheson (17)MTL 2 – 2 MIN · MTL 23% → 47% +24MTL 23% → 47%+24 pts
- P38:57Brock Faber Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (19), Marco Rossi (10)MTL 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 52% → 82% +29MIN 52% → 82%+29 pts
- P316:57Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (3) Deflected, assists: David Savard (3), Mike Matheson (18)MTL 3 – 3 MIN · MTL 5% → 49% +44MTL 5% → 49%+44 pts
- OT4:55Kirill Kaprizov Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (13), Brock Faber (14)MTL 3 – 4 MIN · MIN 50% → 100% +50MIN 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Fair odds
- MIN -126
- MTL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +17 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.42 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +59 Elo | MIN 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.2% | Shot share | 49.7%17th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 9th of 317–5 | Road vs home | 7–512th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.