Boston Bruins at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Brandon CarloGoals1
- Brandon CarloPoints1
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Nino NiederreiterPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:41Nino Niederreiter Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (12)1–5
- P314:22Brandon Carlo Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P31:25Adam Lowry Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Mason Appleton (11), Nino Niederreiter (10)0–4
- P217:41Nino Niederreiter Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (2), Neal Pionk (10)0–3
- P211:17Gabriel Vilardi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (15), Mark Scheifele (24)0–2
- P119:52Josh Morrissey Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (8), Mark Scheifele (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:52Josh Morrissey Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (8), Mark Scheifele (23)BOS 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 54% → 71% +17WPG 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P211:17Gabriel Vilardi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (15), Mark Scheifele (24)BOS 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 73% → 87% +14WPG 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P217:41Nino Niederreiter Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (2), Neal Pionk (10)BOS 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 90% → 97% +7WPG 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P31:25Adam Lowry Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Mason Appleton (11), Nino Niederreiter (10)BOS 0 – 4 WPG · WPG 98% → >99% +2WPG 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P314:22Brandon Carlo Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 1 – 4 WPG · BOS <1% → <1% +0BOS <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Fair odds
- WPG -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +13 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +47 Elo | WPG 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.64th of 31 |
| 16th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 51.6%10th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.3% | Save percentage | 91.6%5th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 5th of 319–6 | Road vs home | 9–714th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.