Boston Bruins at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- James van RiemsdykGoals1
- James van RiemsdykAssists2
- James van RiemsdykPoints3
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals1
- Ivan ProvorovAssists1
- Kent JohnsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:54Trent Frederic Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (18)4–1
- P37:29Danton Heinen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (17)3–1
- P213:07James van Riemsdyk Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Jake DeBrusk (11), Hampus Lindholm (9)2–1
- P24:06Kent Johnson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (19), Dmitri Voronkov (13)1–1
- P22:12Kevin Shattenkirk Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (2), Charlie Coyle (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:12Kevin Shattenkirk Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (2), Charlie Coyle (14)BOS 1 – 0 CBJ · BOS 47% → 65% +18BOS 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P24:06Kent Johnson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (19), Dmitri Voronkov (13)BOS 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 34% → 53% +18CBJ 34% → 53%+18 pts
- P213:07James van Riemsdyk Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Jake DeBrusk (11), Hampus Lindholm (9)BOS 2 – 1 CBJ · BOS 48% → 69% +21BOS 48% → 69%+21 pts
- P37:29Danton Heinen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (17)BOS 3 – 1 CBJ · BOS 78% → 94% +16BOS 78% → 94%+16 pts
- P315:54Trent Frederic Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (18)BOS 4 – 1 CBJ · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 47%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -115
- BOS +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.1 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −6 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · CBJ: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +22 Elo | BOS 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.526th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.0% | Shot share | 45.8%28th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 6th of 3111–8 | Road vs home | 8–1226th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 CBJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.