Boston Bruins at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Trent FredericGoals2
- Charlie McAvoyAssists3
- Trent FredericPoints3
Red Wings- Jake WalmanGoals1
- Andrew CoppAssists1
- Ben ChiarotPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:36Pavel Zacha Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (28), Hampus Lindholm (8)5–3
- P318:38J.T. Compher Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (21), David Perron (7)4–3
- P317:59Jake DeBrusk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (9), Charlie McAvoy (20)4–2
- P33:52Charlie Coyle Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (19), Brad Marchand (20)3–2
- P216:42Ben Chiarot Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (12), Joe Veleno (7)2–2
- P213:01Jake Walman Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (18), Lucas Raymond (17)2–1
- P24:25Trent Frederic Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (18), Hampus Lindholm (7)2–0
- P119:08Trent Frederic Goal (8) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (27), Parker Wotherspoon (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:08Trent Frederic Goal (8) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (27), Parker Wotherspoon (2)BOS 1 – 0 DET · BOS 43% → 60% +17BOS 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P24:25Trent Frederic Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (18), Hampus Lindholm (7)BOS 2 – 0 DET · BOS 62% → 78% +16BOS 62% → 78%+16 pts
- P213:01Jake Walman Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (18), Lucas Raymond (17)BOS 2 – 1 DET · DET 17% → 35% +17DET 17% → 35%+17 pts
- P216:42Ben Chiarot Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (12), Joe Veleno (7)BOS 2 – 2 DET · DET 33% → 56% +23DET 33% → 56%+23 pts
- P33:52Charlie Coyle Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (19), Brad Marchand (20)BOS 3 – 2 DET · BOS 45% → 72% +27BOS 45% → 72%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Fair odds
- DET -144
- BOS +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +19 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.47 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +55 Elo | DET 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.215th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.2% | Shot share | 48.1%24th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.2% | Save percentage | 89.9%20th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 6th of 3110–8 | Road vs home | 10–813th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–2 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.