Nashville Predators at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Gustav NyquistGoals2
- Gustav NyquistAssists1
- Gustav NyquistPoints3
Red Wings- Jake WalmanGoals2
- Alex DeBrincatAssists2
- Jake WalmanPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:13Lucas Raymond Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (20), Jake Walman (8)4–5
- P312:24Gustav Nyquist Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (23), Luke Schenn (2)4–4
- P311:13Jake Walman Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (19), Patrick Kane (7)3–4
- P39:29Alex DeBrincat Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (15), Patrick Kane (6)3–3
- P213:49Filip Forsberg Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (10)3–2
- P211:40Gustav Nyquist Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P119:38Jake Walman Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (8), Robby Fabbri (7)1–2
- P110:43Filip Forsberg Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (18)1–1
- P14:02Dylan Larkin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:49Filip Forsberg Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (10)NSH 3 – 2 DET · NSH 46% → 68% +21NSH 46% → 68%+21 pts
- P39:29Alex DeBrincat Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (15), Patrick Kane (6)NSH 3 – 3 DET · DET 21% → 52% +32DET 21% → 52%+32 pts
- P311:13Jake Walman Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (19), Patrick Kane (7)NSH 3 – 4 DET · DET 52% → 84% +32DET 52% → 84%+32 pts
- P312:24Gustav Nyquist Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (23), Luke Schenn (2)NSH 4 – 4 DET · NSH 14% → 48% +34NSH 14% → 48%+34 pts
- OT2:13Lucas Raymond Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (20), Jake Walman (8)NSH 4 – 5 DET · DET 51% → 96% +45DET 51% → 96%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Fair odds
- DET -125
- NSH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +26 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.64 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +51 Elo | DET 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.0% | Shot share | 48.4%23rd of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 89.9%22nd of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 31 |
| 9th of 318–7 | Road vs home | 9–816th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.