Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Craig SmithGoals1
- Esa LindellAssists1
- Evgenii DadonovPoints1
Predators- Colton SissonsGoals1
- Philip TomasinoAssists1
- Colton SissonsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:56Jani Hakanpää Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P319:45Craig Smith Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (21), Joe Pavelski (18)2–2
- P38:22Evgenii Dadonov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (9), Roope Hintz (17)1–2
- P26:33Colton Sissons Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (17), Ryan O'Reilly (14)0–2
- P20:23Michael McCarron Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McDonagh (9), Philip Tomasino (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:23Michael McCarron Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McDonagh (9), Philip Tomasino (10)DAL 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 54% → 71% +17NSH 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P26:33Colton Sissons Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (17), Ryan O'Reilly (14)DAL 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 72% → 86% +14NSH 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P38:22Evgenii Dadonov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (9), Roope Hintz (17)DAL 1 – 2 NSH · DAL 4% → 19% +14DAL 4% → 19%+14 pts
- P319:45Craig Smith Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (21), Joe Pavelski (18)DAL 2 – 2 NSH · DAL <1% → 50% +50DAL <1% → 50%+50 pts
- P319:56Jani Hakanpää Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: noneDAL 3 – 2 NSH · DAL 50% → 100% +50DAL 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 57%
- Fair odds
- NSH -124
- DAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +7 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +46 Elo | NSH 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.212th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.6% | Shot share | 48.9%20th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.0%11th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 5th of 319–6 | Road vs home | 11–66th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.