Detroit Red Wings at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals2
- Marcus JohanssonAssists1
- Marcus JohanssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:15Kirill Kaprizov Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Dakota Mermis (4)3–6
- P38:00Daniel Sprong Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (1), Jonatan Berggren (3)3–5
- P36:42Marcus Johansson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (11)2–5
- P35:27Marcus Foligno Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jake Middleton (8)2–4
- P34:35Ryan Hartman Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (14), Zach Bogosian (3)2–3
- P32:43Alex DeBrincat Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (19), J.T. Compher (14)2–2
- P21:37Marcus Johansson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P16:32Patrick Kane Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (18)1–1
- P10:38Matt Boldy Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (20), Joel Eriksson Ek (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:32Patrick Kane Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (18)DET 1 – 1 MIN · DET 30% → 44% +15DET 30% → 44%+15 pts
- P21:37Marcus Johansson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 55% → 72% +17MIN 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P32:43Alex DeBrincat Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (19), J.T. Compher (14)DET 2 – 2 MIN · DET 22% → 47% +24DET 22% → 47%+24 pts
- P34:35Ryan Hartman Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (14), Zach Bogosian (3)DET 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 53% → 79% +26MIN 53% → 79%+26 pts
- P35:27Marcus Foligno Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jake Middleton (8)DET 2 – 4 MIN · MIN 79% → 94% +15MIN 79% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -127
- DET +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +16 | DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +65 Elo | MIN 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.215th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3148.4% | Shot share | 50.0%15th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%21st of 31 |
| 31st of 312–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 14th of 317–8 | Road vs home | 9–57th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.