Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists3
- Sebastian AhoPoints4
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P217:54Seth Jarvis Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Michael Bunting (17), Sebastian Aho (21)5–2
- P29:56Jack Drury Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jesper Fast (7), Stefan Noesen (11)4–2
- P25:08Ryan O'Reilly Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Colton Sissons (9), Roman Josi (21)3–2
- P23:44Andrei Svechnikov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (20)3–1
- P21:18Gustav Nyquist Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (15)2–1
- P115:08Brent Burns Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (19), Andrei Svechnikov (13)2–0
- P19:50Sebastian Aho Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Brent Burns (10), Seth Jarvis (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:50Sebastian Aho Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Brent Burns (10), Seth Jarvis (14)CAR 1 – 0 NSH · CAR 45% → 61% +16CAR 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P21:18Gustav Nyquist Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (15)CAR 2 – 1 NSH · NSH 21% → 36% +15NSH 21% → 36%+15 pts
- P23:44Andrei Svechnikov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (20)CAR 3 – 1 NSH · CAR 64% → 80% +16CAR 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P25:08Ryan O'Reilly Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Colton Sissons (9), Roman Josi (21)CAR 3 – 2 NSH · NSH 20% → 35% +16NSH 20% → 35%+16 pts
- P29:56Jack Drury Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jesper Fast (7), Stefan Noesen (11)CAR 4 – 2 NSH · CAR 66% → 83% +16CAR 66% → 83%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 56%
- Fair odds
- NSH -123
- CAR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +6 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +40 Elo | NSH 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 1st of 3157.1% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.0% | Save percentage | 91.0%11th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 20th of 318–11 | Road vs home | 11–79th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 0–1 NSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.