New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Anders LeeAssists2
- Anders LeePoints3
Hurricanes- Stefan NoesenGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Martin NecasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:17Stefan Noesen Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (16), Brady Skjei (15)5–4
- P33:44Anders Lee Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (29), Bo Horvat (19)5–3
- P31:56Jaccob Slavin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (15), Andrei Svechnikov (12)4–3
- P214:12Mike Reilly Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (25), Anders Lee (5)4–2
- P20:59Sebastian Aho Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (16), Andrei Svechnikov (11)3–2
- P118:25Bo Horvat Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (24), Anders Lee (4)3–1
- P114:43Brock Nelson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (5), Kyle Palmieri (12)2–1
- P112:22Teuvo Teravainen Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Seth Jarvis (13), Dmitry Orlov (12)1–1
- P111:19Sebastian Aho Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (11), Brock Nelson (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:43Brock Nelson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (5), Kyle Palmieri (12)NYI 2 – 1 CAR · NYI 45% → 61% +17NYI 45% → 61%+17 pts
- P214:12Mike Reilly Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (25), Anders Lee (5)NYI 4 – 2 CAR · NYI 68% → 84% +17NYI 68% → 84%+17 pts
- P31:56Jaccob Slavin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (15), Andrei Svechnikov (12)NYI 4 – 3 CAR · CAR 11% → 28% +17CAR 11% → 28%+17 pts
- P33:44Anders Lee Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (29), Bo Horvat (19)NYI 5 – 3 CAR · NYI 73% → 91% +17NYI 73% → 91%+17 pts
- P39:17Stefan Noesen Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (16), Brady Skjei (15)NYI 5 – 4 CAR · CAR 5% → 21% +16CAR 5% → 21%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Fair odds
- CAR -127
- NYI +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +13 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +68 Elo | CAR 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.214th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.3% | Shot share | 57.0%1st of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 88.2%31st of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 18th of 316–8 | Road vs home | 9–57th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 1–1 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.