New Jersey Devils at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Luke HughesGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints1
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:49Kevin Shattenkirk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (19), David Pastrnak (26)2–5
- P217:14Kevin Shattenkirk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (1), Charlie Coyle (13)2–4
- P215:39David Pastrnak Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (10), Charlie McAvoy (17)2–3
- P212:51David Pastrnak Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Carlo (6), Morgan Geekie (8)2–2
- P25:35Jake DeBrusk Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Brad Marchand (18), Charlie Coyle (12)2–1
- P21:11Luke Hughes Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (12), Jesper Bratt (29)2–0
- P16:03Nico Hischier Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (11), Jack Hughes (29)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:03Nico Hischier Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (11), Jack Hughes (29)NJ 1 – 0 BOS · NJ 41% → 57% +15NJ 41% → 57%+15 pts
- P21:11Luke Hughes Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (12), Jesper Bratt (29)NJ 2 – 0 BOS · NJ 61% → 77% +16NJ 61% → 77%+16 pts
- P25:35Jake DeBrusk Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Brad Marchand (18), Charlie Coyle (12)NJ 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 21% → 38% +16BOS 21% → 38%+16 pts
- P212:51David Pastrnak Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Carlo (6), Morgan Geekie (8)NJ 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 35% → 56% +21BOS 35% → 56%+21 pts
- P215:39David Pastrnak Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (10), Charlie McAvoy (17)NJ 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 56% → 76% +21BOS 56% → 76%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Fair odds
- BOS -144
- NJ +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 3.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −10 | NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +58 Elo | BOS 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.57th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 31 |
| 28th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 2nd of 3111–5 | Road vs home | 9–58th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.