New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jesper BrattGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists3
- Jesper BrattPoints4
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals1
- Brady TkachukAssists1
- Drake BathersonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:28Luke Hughes Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Holtz (7), Chris Tierney (1)6–2
- P313:25Jacob Bernard-Docker Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Brannstrom (6), Angus Crookshank (1)5–2
- P33:59Brendan Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (9), Jesper Bratt (28)5–1
- P214:47Tyler Toffoli Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (27), Jack Hughes (28)4–1
- P27:17Dawson Mercer Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none3–1
- P119:52Jesper Bratt Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (27), Luke Hughes (14)2–1
- P113:10Jack Hughes Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (13), Jesper Bratt (26)1–1
- P19:47Drake Batherson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:47Drake Batherson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (10)NJ 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 54% → 69% +15OTT 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P113:10Jack Hughes Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (13), Jesper Bratt (26)NJ 1 – 1 OTT · NJ 31% → 46% +16NJ 31% → 46%+16 pts
- P119:52Jesper Bratt Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (27), Luke Hughes (14)NJ 2 – 1 OTT · NJ 47% → 64% +17NJ 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P27:17Dawson Mercer Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: noneNJ 3 – 1 OTT · NJ 66% → 82% +16NJ 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P214:47Tyler Toffoli Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (27), Jack Hughes (28)NJ 4 – 1 OTT · NJ 85% → 95% +9NJ 85% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 51%
- Fair odds
- OTT -118
- NJ +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −10 | NJ: Nico Daws (no track record yet) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +7 Elo | OTT 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.1 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 51.9%10th of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%28th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3110–5 | Road vs home | 7–923rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.